Golden Land Bhd: Special dividend and capital repayment as catalyst for share price uptrend movement? (2)

Recall in an earlier blog posting that yours truly had speculated on the potential share price uptrend movement due to 2 separate cash distribution and the perceived margin of safety for the intrinsic cash value post distribution.

The trade did not work out as expected as share price took a dive following the special dividend ex-date on 28 March 2016. Announcement of capital repayment did not have the desired effect as well.

Reasons that could explain the downtrend may be expected heavy capital outlay for investment in plantation land that could lock up cash reserves. Other than that it was a value trap so far that trapped my investment funds which did not see any growth for more than 6 months.

This will be the last of Golden Land posting until there are any new corporate developments.

Note: This is not an investment advice. Buy and sell any securities at your own risk.

 


Disclosure as at time of publication: Long Golden Land Berhad.

Hwang Capital: Potential bumper dividend round 2? (2)

Recall in an earlier posting that yours truly has speculated on the possible bumper dividends for the 2^nd time coming from Hwang.

In a surprise turn of events, Hwang had announced on Bursa Malaysia that its major shareholders, holding about 30% of total shares outstanding in Hwang Capital intend to launch a conditional takeover offer for the remaining 70% shares outstanding for Hwang Capital at RM2.65 per share, a decent premium of about 16% from current share price of RM2.21.

The share price had a brief run up in late March, almost breaching the RM2.65 levels before share price took a dive following an announcement that it will be extending timeframe for acquisition of new business for another year to April 2017.

Shareholder wishing to sell back their shares to Hwang at RM2.65 can do so should Hwang able to control more than 50% of voting shares after tabulating all valid acceptances to the offer.

A quick check on the shareholder register showed another substantial shareholder, DBS bank, which is in turn controlled by Temasek, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, with the potential in becoming the kingmaker in this deal. Its stake at a price of RM2.65 is valued at approximately SGD61 million, chump change compared to its huge asset base. The author is of the view that likelihood of DBS selling away the stake is high, thus paving way for an eventual delisting, which is incidentally the major shareholder’s desired intention.

Minority resistance may surface due its substantial discount of 21% compared to its NTA of RM3.22 per share. However, low interest rate environment and a continued delay may force shareholders to sell in view of the dimming prospects for its only core moneylending business.

Ultra patient shareholders may finally see light at the end of tunnel after holding on to Hwang shares. Since the bumper dividend on April 2014, share price has been on a steady uptrend from a low of RM1.80, and shareholders may have the chance to dispose its shares for a total of 47% capital gains after 2 and a half years.

Share price movement post announcement of the deal when the stock begins trading may present further opportunities for risk arbitrage.

Final thoughts:

Pros: Opportunity for unlocking share value for shareholders, higher offer price

Cons: Failure to obtain requisite valid acceptances pass conditions precedent.

Note: This is not an investment advice. Buy and sell any securities at your own risk.

Disclosure: None.

KAF Seagroatt-Campbell: Risk Arbitrage or reverse risk arbitrage? (2)

Recall earlier posting that there is a potential risk arbitrage gains about 7.5% should you purchase KAF shares on 22 February 2016. The offer has officially become unconditional and the offeror had proceeded to scoop up the remaining shares in KAF. KAF IB will have full control of KAF Seagroatt-Campbell. This deal will be finalized by June 2016 and will close a chapter on the takeover deal. The price has shot up to RM2.69 per share and those holding on to the shares can sell them back at RM2.70 for some savings on brokerage expenses. No further opportunities are expected from this share.

Note: This is not an investment advice. Buy and sell any securities at your own risk.

 

MAA: Something Brewing? (2)

Recall that yours truly had in an earlier blog posting highlighted the pending sale negotiations for MAA to dispose its 75% stake in MAA Takaful. Fast forward to present day, on 4^th May 2016, MAA officially announced the signing of S&P agreement with Zurich to Bursa Malaysia. All the pros highlighted will be realized should the sale go through namely:

Management aggressive buyback: Management has continued its share buyback spree by buying approximately 2.6 million shares from the open market at an average price of around 0.95 per share. This provided a strong support basis for the share price.

Favourable valuation obtained for sale of MAA Takaful – This is huge positive surprise as the sale price of RM393.75million for its 75% stake values MAA Takaful at Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 4.49 times, well above prevailing valuation of comparable M&A transactions.

Management unlocking share value via distributions – Management has proposed a special dividend amounting to RM0.35 per share should the deal goes through smoothly, which may take about 3 months or more.

Post disposal MAA will be a cash rich company. It intends to maintain its listing status, hence there may be room for management to hoard the cash pile since it is likely to avoid being a cash company. NTA after disposal is estimated to be RM2 per share after declaration of special dividend.

Yours truly once held MAA shares but had since been disposed for other utilization, hence missing the impending big gain when shares begin trading on 5 May 2016. There may be opportunity if the share price is right for some risk arbitrage gains, but subject to final computation of expected remaining cash pile per share held by the company and of course share price levels.

Final thoughts:

Pros: None. Subject to share price which may present some risk arbitrage opportunities.

Cons: Management hoarding cash or deploy in value destroying new core business.

Note: This is not an investment advice. Buy and sell any securities at your own risk.

 

Disclosure at time of publication: None.